德银：关于美国政府关门，这是市场“不想知道”的一切

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks associated with a possible U.S. government shutdown, highlighting three main "invisible risks" that could impact economic growth, data release interruptions, and specific financial instruments [1][2]. Economic Impact - A comprehensive government shutdown could lead to approximately 800,000 federal employees being furloughed, resulting in a weekly reduction of about 0.2 percentage points in annualized real GDP growth [2][7]. - The previous shutdown in October 2013 caused a decline of $8 billion in actual federal consumption expenditures, which ultimately reduced the fourth-quarter GDP growth by 30 basis points (0.3%) [7]. Data Release Interruption - The shutdown may delay the release of critical economic data such as employment reports and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), creating a "data black hole" for the Federal Reserve and market participants [4][5]. - Historical data from the 2013 shutdown indicates that the employment and CPI data releases were significantly delayed, leading to a chaotic data release schedule [4][6]. Financial Instruments Impact - The delay in CPI data could affect inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and inflation swaps. If the September CPI report is not released on time, the U.S. Treasury will use a fallback index based on the most recent available changes to calculate TIPS payment obligations [10][11]. - For inflation swaps, if the final data is released more than five business days after the payment date, actual data will be used; otherwise, a similar fallback method will apply [11]. Absence of Default Risk - Unlike the 2013 crisis, the current budget impasse does not involve a debt ceiling issue, which significantly reduces the risk of a systemic financial crisis due to government default [3][9].