七年来首次！美国政府正式“关门”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, leading to the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees and creating new uncertainties for the economy and financial markets [1][3]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Details - The shutdown officially began at midnight on October 1, 2023, with the White House instructing agencies to implement their "orderly shutdown" plans [3][5]. - The last significant shutdown occurred from late 2018 to early 2019, lasting 35 days due to disputes over funding for a border wall [4]. Group 2: Legislative Stalemate - The immediate cause of the shutdown was a voting deadlock in the Senate, where a Republican proposal to extend government funding until November 21 failed to pass [5][6]. - The proposal required 60 votes but only received 55 in favor, with all Democratic senators voting against it [6]. Group 3: Political Divisions - The core of the deadlock lies in fundamental disagreements over the content of the temporary funding bill, with Republicans seeking a short-term extension and Democrats pushing for additional spending and policy priorities [7]. - The White House's memo highlighted a $1 trillion increase in spending demands from Democrats, indicating a significant divide in fiscal policy [7]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to lead to the furlough of "hundreds of thousands" of federal employees, with some essential workers required to continue without pay [8][9]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the shutdown could result in approximately 750,000 federal employees being furloughed daily, depending on its duration [9]. Group 5: Data Release Delays - The shutdown will likely delay the release of key economic data, including employment and inflation reports, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10][12]. - Historical data indicates that even after a government reopens, it may take a significant amount of time for data releases to return to normal, potentially causing market volatility [12]. Group 6: Comparison to Previous Shutdowns - The current situation is compared to the 2013 shutdown, which lasted three weeks, but the current deadlock does not involve a debt ceiling debate, reducing the risk of a financial crisis [13][14]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that each week of shutdown could reduce quarterly GDP growth by 15 basis points, with a three-week shutdown potentially cutting growth by 45 basis points [13].