行业透视 | 10月新房供应回调预期成交热度回落，苏宁郑等或延续弱复苏

Core Viewpoint - The supply of new homes in October shows a steady decline, with developers' enthusiasm for launching new projects remaining moderate, leading to a continuation of low-level consolidation in new home transactions, and a potential widening of year-on-year decline due to a high base from last year [1][4]. Supply Overview - In October, the supply of new homes in 28 cities decreased by 41% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, with a total expected supply of 577 million square meters [3][6]. - First-tier cities experienced a significant drop in supply, with a total expected supply of 122 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 50% and a year-on-year decrease of 27% [8][10]. - Second-tier cities saw about 90% of cities decline month-on-month, with a total expected supply of 416 million square meters, down 40% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year [8][10]. - Third and fourth-tier cities showed a low-level recovery, with a total expected supply of 39 million square meters, increasing by approximately 47% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, largely driven by a surge in Quanzhou [9][10]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is tilted towards improvement demand, with the proportions of essential, improvement, and high-end products being 29%, 57%, and 14% respectively [12]. - Nearly 80% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with a significant focus on improvement products in cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [12][13]. Market Dynamics - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is expected to be 34%, a decrease of 7 percentage points month-on-month and 4 percentage points year-on-year [18]. - Cities like Hangzhou are expected to maintain high absorption rates due to strong purchasing power and a concentration of high-quality improvement housing, while other cities like Nanning and Chongqing are struggling with absorption rates below 30% [18][19].