当下的 AI 产品：有 revenue，但不是 recurring 的

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in AI startups, highlighting the pressure on founders to achieve significant revenue milestones quickly [4][6] - It critiques the distortion of the ARR metric, suggesting that it has been manipulated to fit unrealistic growth expectations in the AI sector [7][10] - The article emphasizes that traditional ARR metrics are no longer suitable for evaluating AI companies due to fundamental differences in business models and customer behavior [10][12] Group 1: ARR Growth and Distortion - ARR has seen rapid growth in AI startups, with examples like Midjourney reaching $200 million in less than three years and ElevenLabs nearing $100 million in 20 months [6] - Founders are under immense pressure to quickly scale ARR, leading to a redefinition of what constitutes "recurring" revenue [4][10] - The concept of "vibe revenue" has emerged, indicating that some reported revenues are not truly recurring but rather based on temporary or trial agreements [8][9] Group 2: Inadequacy of Traditional Metrics - The traditional ARR metric, which worked well in the SaaS era, is now deemed inadequate for AI companies due to their unique business dynamics [10][11] - AI customers often engage in short-term pilot projects rather than long-term commitments, resulting in high customer churn rates [12] - The pricing model for AI services is unpredictable, contrasting with the linear, predictable nature of SaaS pricing [12][13] Group 3: Systemic Issues in the Startup Ecosystem - The startup ecosystem has become somewhat closed and self-referential, with standardized methods of entrepreneurship leading to a focus on pleasing investors rather than genuine business health [17][18] - There exists a transactional loop where AI startups sell products to each other, reinforcing the acceptance of questionable metrics like "booked ARR" as industry standards [18][19] - The article suggests that the current focus on ARR is symptomatic of a larger issue, where inflated valuations are driven by the pursuit of potential breakthroughs in AI [19][20] Group 4: Future Directions - The consensus among industry observers is that ARR will not be the future metric for evaluating AI businesses, as investors seek more reliable indicators of user engagement and retention [20] - New metrics focusing on user retention, daily active usage, and unit economics are expected to emerge as more accurate measures of business health in the AI sector [20]