Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 凤凰网财经·2025-10-02 12:34Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the recent surge in gold prices, driven by unexpected inflows from Western individual investors, may continue [1]. Group 1: ETF Inflows and Investor Behavior - The recent surge in gold prices is significantly driven by strong demand for gold ETFs from Western investors, with September inflows reaching 109 tons, far exceeding the model's prediction of 17 tons [2]. - Goldman Sachs categorizes gold buyers into three groups: Western ETF investors, central banks, and speculators, noting that the current price increase reflects a strong purchasing power from committed individual buyers rather than speculative short-term funds [2][3]. - The increase in gold prices since August 26 has seen a contribution of 3 percentage points from the growth in Western ETF holdings, indicating a solid foundation for the current price rally [4]. Group 2: Price Outlook and Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs highlights that the baseline forecast for gold prices faces increasing upward risks, primarily due to the low speculative component in the current rally, suggesting a more robust foundation for price increases [5]. - The relatively small size of the gold market, with Western gold ETFs valued at only about 1.5% of privately held U.S. Treasury securities, implies that even minor shifts in asset allocation from fixed income could lead to significant price increases for gold [5]. - Gold is seen as an attractive investment option, providing a hedge against adverse scenarios such as economic slowdowns and increasing concerns over macroeconomic policies in developed economies, which negatively impact traditional stock and bond portfolios [5].