日本自民党党首明日选举，会有何影响？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to be a contest primarily between current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, and former Minister of Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, with predictions indicating that political instability will persist regardless of the outcome [2][3][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - The resignation of former LDP president and Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, after internal party pressure highlights the ongoing political instability in Japan, characterized by frequent changes in leadership [4][5]. - Since Shinzo Abe's second term, Japan has experienced a pattern of "one prime minister per year," indicating a lack of political continuity and stability [5][6]. - The internal factional struggles within the LDP are expected to continue, making it difficult for any new leader to maintain a stable government [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Policy Challenges - The absence of clear economic policies among the LDP candidates is a significant issue, as previous leaders failed to revitalize the economy, leading to public disillusionment [6][12]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports is a pressing concern, with estimates indicating that Trump's tariffs could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.4% and lead to a decline in consumer spending and corporate profits [15][16]. - The candidates have not proposed a coherent strategy to address the economic challenges posed by U.S. trade policies, which could further hinder Japan's economic recovery [17][18]. Group 3: Sino-Japanese Relations - Despite political tensions, economic relations between Japan and China remain stable, with bilateral trade figures showing a slight increase over the years [22][23]. - The new LDP president is unlikely to change the confrontational stance towards China, as candidates have continued to emphasize national security concerns and the need to address perceived threats from China [21][22]. - The duality of maintaining economic ties with China while adopting a politically adversarial stance is a defining characteristic of Japan's current political landscape [22][23].