再议：大宗商品会有新一轮牛市吗？

Group 1: Core Views - The article emphasizes the need to accept a new geopolitical and macroeconomic paradigm centered around modern mercantilism, which is seen as a defensive reaction to the hollowing out of manufacturing in developed countries [1] - The Trump administration's agenda is characterized as embodying modern mercantilism, with significant administrative power expansion to dominate the economy, where national security drives industrial policy [1][2] Group 2: Policy Aspects - The article discusses the Trump administration's re-industrialization strategy and modern mercantilism, highlighting recent aggressive policies such as tariffs and investments in key industries like chips and resources [5] - It notes that the U.S. government is leveraging investments to stimulate key industries and promote small businesses, while trade barriers and a weaker dollar are used to boost exports [5] - The projected acceleration of AI investment to $255 billion by Q2 2025 is expected to drive growth across various sectors, aligning with the investment cycle theory [5] Group 3: Economic Aspects - The article outlines expectations for economic growth in the U.S. starting in Q4 this year, with a resurgence in inflation and a strong job market [14] - It highlights that despite concerns about AI leading to job losses, the employment market remains tight, with companies continuing to hire across all sizes [14][16] - Inflation is anticipated to rise, with many businesses still experiencing upward price movements, suggesting that core PCE inflation may see a slight increase by early next year [18] Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - The article suggests that the market's expectations regarding U.S. policies and the economic environment over the next six months will support commodity prices [19] - It points out that hedge funds and asset managers currently hold net long positions in crude oil that are near historical lows, primarily due to OPEC+ strategies and fears of a U.S. economic slowdown [19][20]