黄金还有多大上涨空间？

Group 1 - The article presents a formula for estimating the reasonable price of gold, which is based on the scale of U.S. debt: Gold Spot Price (USD) = U.S. Debt Scale (Trillions) * 100 [3][14] - The author emphasizes the importance of quantitative analysis in determining gold prices, arguing that qualitative factors alone are insufficient for valuation [5][6][7] - The relationship between gold value and global currency supply is explained, with the author likening individual perceptions of gold value to quantum states, leading to a stable macroeconomic price for gold [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the rationale for using U.S. debt as a proxy for global currency supply, highlighting the stability of the dollar's influence and its role in central bank reserves [12][13] - Historical data supports the formula, showing that gold prices have fluctuated around the U.S. debt scale divided by 100 since the 1990s [15] - As of September 2025, the U.S. debt is projected to reach approximately $38 trillion, with gold prices currently exceeding $3,800, indicating alignment with the formula [16] Group 3 - Two incremental factors that could influence gold prices are identified: increased market demand due to geopolitical tensions and a long-term decline in the dollar's status [17][18] - The article predicts that the U.S. debt will surpass $40 trillion in the coming years, suggesting that gold prices could stabilize around $4,000 based on the formula, with potential increases to $4,500-$5,000 due to additional demand factors [20]