为什么以上班的思维进行投资，注定会失败？这三点告诉你真相！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between individuals with strong analytical skills who often lose money in the stock market and those who achieve significant wealth without apparent exceptional intelligence, attributing this to the limitations of conventional thinking in investment and entrepreneurship [3][6]. Group 1: Insight and Methodology - Insight involves identifying anomalies in everyday life that can lead to overlooked opportunities [8]. - In investment, the process includes discovering market phenomena, designing effective investment methods, testing and improving these methods, and ultimately risking significant capital based on past successes [5][6]. - The article emphasizes that the structured environment of large companies supports success through established processes, while investment and entrepreneurship are less predictable and often lead to failure despite similar methodologies [6][14]. Group 2: Survivor Bias - The concept of survivor bias is highlighted, where successful entrepreneurs and investors are often seen as exceptional, while the failures using similar methods remain unnoticed [6][12]. - The luxury goods market is used as an example, illustrating that successful brands often benefited from unique circumstances rather than replicable strategies [11][12]. - The article warns that many perceived "blue oceans" are actually "dead seas" where previous entrepreneurs have failed, indicating the randomness of success in business ventures [13][14]. Group 3: Explanation and Reality - The ability to explain outcomes is crucial in corporate environments, where clear communication can determine success [18][19]. - However, in investment, explanations often reflect survivor bias, leading to misinterpretations of market realities [20][21]. - Investors may become trapped in self-deception, over-relying on their analytical skills while ignoring adverse market signals [21]. Group 4: Persistence and Its Pitfalls - Persistence is often overvalued in investment, as sticking to a failing strategy can lead to irreversible losses [24][27]. - Successful investors must balance persistence with the ability to adapt to changing market conditions, rather than rigidly adhering to initial strategies [30][31]. - The article concludes that the combination of insight, explanation, and persistence can lead to significant losses if not managed carefully, emphasizing the need for flexibility in investment strategies [32].