硬AI·2025-10-03 06:10Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Google's Gemini AI, raising the target price from $210 to $270, citing faster innovation and AI-driven growth in core search and cloud businesses as key factors supporting a 10% premium on its valuation [2][4]. Group 1: AI and Business Growth - Google's stock has rebounded strongly, with a 29% increase this year, outperforming the S&P 500 index, as market confidence in its AI capabilities is restored [4]. - Analyst Brian Nowak has revised earnings forecasts upward, increasing the expected EPS for FY2026 by 3% and for FY2027 by 4%, which underpins the new target price [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in growth expectations for Google's cloud business, predicting revenue growth of 35% and 30% for FY2026 and FY2027, respectively, with GCP growth expected to accelerate to 39% in 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Positive Indicators for Cloud Business - Google's revenue backlog reached $108 billion as of Q2 2025, a 37% year-over-year increase, with a projected contribution of approximately 160 basis points to cloud growth over the next 12 months [5]. - New partnerships, such as with META, are expected to contribute an additional 300 basis points to cloud revenue growth in 2026 [5]. - Demand for TPU is anticipated to grow by 57% in 2026, driven by both internal product innovation and external customer needs, adding further upside potential to Google's cloud valuation [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's aggressive commercialization poses a challenge, with new products allowing users to shop directly in chat, indicating a competitive threat to Google's market share [6][7]. - However, Nowak suggests that Google's accelerated product improvements may hinder ChatGPT's ability to create significantly differentiated products [7]. - Future stock performance will largely depend on Google's ability to maintain its market share amidst competition, with potential target prices ranging from $335 in a bullish scenario to $180 in a bearish scenario [7].