热点思考 | 六问美国政府“关门”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits and Republicans opposing the bundling of these issues with temporary funding [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the government shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration based on trading predictions [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and CPI [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with the longest being 34 days [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, often involving healthcare and immigration policies [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02% [4][24][44] - The primary channels through which shutdowns affect the economy include federal employee income and policy uncertainty, with wage back-pay mitigating long-term impacts [4][24][44] Group 5 - Government shutdowns generally have minimal effects on non-farm employment, although they may temporarily raise the unemployment rate, which typically reverts after the government reopens [5][29][30][45] - For instance, the 2019 shutdown led to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, which later decreased by 0.2 points upon reopening [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of government shutdowns on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The U.S. dollar typically weakens slightly, averaging a decline of 0.30%, while gold prices may rise modestly [6][36][46]