现货黄金历史性突破4000美元大关，年内涨幅超50%

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices, which have historically surpassed $4,000 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of U.S. government shutdown, tech stock corrections, and global political uncertainties [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold reached a psychological milestone of $4,000, marking a historic high [2]. - Investors are flocking to the gold market seeking refuge amid escalating global economic and geopolitical risks, with gold prices soaring over 50% this year [5][8]. - The recent enthusiasm for gold is driven by a combination of retail demand in Europe and Japan, as well as institutional inflows [15]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown, now in its second week, has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices [9]. - The suspension of key economic data releases due to the shutdown has created significant uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [10][11]. - Despite the lack of data, traders generally expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month, which typically boosts the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [12][13]. Group 3: Global Political Uncertainty - Political turmoil in France and Japan has heightened concerns over fiscal risks, further driving demand for gold as a safe haven [14][15]. - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire and the potential leadership change in Japan have contributed to market uncertainty [15]. Group 4: Long-term Trends and Institutional Demand - The narratives of "de-dollarization" and "de-globalization" are providing structural support for gold's long-term price increase [16]. - Strong institutional demand is a key feature of the current bull market, with central banks, including the People's Bank of China, actively increasing their gold reserves [17]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900, citing continued inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases [18]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - While some analysts caution about potential short-term pullbacks due to the rapid price increase, many strategists recommend maintaining gold as a core portfolio allocation [19]. - It is suggested that investors increase their gold allocation to around 5% to hedge against dollar risks and prepare for future shocks [20].