11月5日，“黑天鹅”来袭？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represents a critical juncture for the U.S. market, with potential implications for presidential power and economic policy direction [1][3]. Legal Basis and Implications - The core of the legal dispute revolves around the invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by the Trump administration, which allows the president to impose tariffs in response to a "national emergency" [4][5]. - The effective consumer goods tariff rate has risen to 17.9%, the highest level since 1934, due to tariffs that took effect on April 2 [6]. Government's Position - The White House expresses confidence in the legality of the tariffs, citing three main arguments: trade deficits as a unique external threat, the IEEPA not explicitly excluding tariffs as an emergency tool, and periodic congressional review of these tariffs [7]. Legal Community's Perspective - The mainstream legal opinion, including conservative scholars, suggests that the government's legal basis is weak, with a significant likelihood of losing the case based on the "major-questions doctrine," which requires explicit congressional or constitutional authorization for actions of substantial economic and political significance [8][9]. Market Reactions and Economic Impact - The outcome of the Supreme Court case is viewed as a "Damocles sword" over Wall Street, with the potential for two drastically different futures depending on the ruling [10]. - Current market pricing has somewhat incorporated the impact of tariffs, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet predicting annual tariff revenues exceeding $500 billion in the coming years, which could help reduce the fiscal deficit [10]. Consequences of a Ruling - If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the White House may need to refund billions in tariffs, significantly impacting fiscal policy and undermining the unilateral economic strategy of the Trump administration [12]. - Conversely, a ruling in favor of the Trump administration would greatly expand presidential power, allowing for unilateral economic decisions without congressional approval, effectively granting a "quasi-royal" authority [14].