黄金、比特币双双创历史新高，美国政府关门刺激“美元贬值交易”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of a "devaluation trade" strategy among investors, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and the value of the dollar, leading to record highs in gold and Bitcoin prices [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surpassed $3,900 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, just days after breaking the $3,800 mark [1]. - Bitcoin hit a peak of $125,689 on October 5, exceeding its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [4]. - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.1% last Friday, marking a year-to-date decline of approximately 10% [4]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The "devaluation trade" is fueled by long-term factors such as uncertainty regarding long-term inflation, U.S. fiscal policy, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the persistent high deficits of major economies [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that the current government shutdown is a reflection of deeper structural issues within the political system, contributing to the ongoing high federal deficits [10][11]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts are optimistic about the future of gold and Bitcoin, with Citibank's Alex Saunders predicting Bitcoin could reach $181,000 within 12 months, viewing it as "digital gold" [12]. - Fund manager Jeff Muhlenkamp anticipates gold prices will clearly exceed $4,000 by the end of the year, citing significant concerns over the U.S. deficit, which is currently around 6% to 6.5% of GDP [13].