政府关门，数十万人将被裁，美联储降息迫在眉睫

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is facing additional strain due to an unprecedented government shutdown, which may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts amid data interruptions [1][7] - The Trump administration is utilizing the government shutdown crisis to advance a second round of large-scale federal employee layoffs, with expectations of a reduction of hundreds of thousands of federal employees by the end of the year [1][4] - Approximately 154,000 federal employees have accepted the Deferred Resignation Plan, with about 100,000 already removed from the government payroll [3][4] Group 2 - The government has implemented hiring freezes, forced layoffs, and voluntary departure programs, contributing to the overall reduction in federal employment [4][5] - The current government shutdown is expected to temporarily lay off around 750,000 employees, with the White House threatening permanent cuts related to the shutdown [6] - The lack of key economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy-making, as they are unable to assess labor market and price dynamics effectively [7][8] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that even with inflation rates above target, the Federal Reserve may prioritize cushioning the labor market from further shocks [9]