华尔街见闻·2025-10-02 11:39Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley significantly raised Alibaba's target price, indicating that the company is building an unprecedented business flywheel by converting AI Token revenue from its cloud business into commission rate advantages on its e-commerce platform [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Adjustment - Morgan Stanley increased Alibaba's target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks from $170 to $245 and from HKD 165 to HKD 240 respectively [2][5]. - The narrative surrounding Alibaba has shifted from being perceived as a "loser in the domestic e-commerce market" to being recognized as a "top-tier asset in Chinese internet" [2][5]. Group 2: AI Cloud Business Growth - Alibaba Cloud's revenue showed remarkable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 26% in Q2 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of rising growth rates [2]. - The strong performance is primarily driven by demand for generative AI, particularly from the internet, autonomous driving, and embodied intelligence sectors [2]. Group 3: Synergy Between Generative AI and E-commerce - Alibaba's unique advantage lies in the deep integration of its AI capabilities with its vast e-commerce ecosystem [3]. - The company showcased a suite of powerful AI models and applications at the 2025 Cloud Summit, which can be directly utilized by its extensive merchant ecosystem [3]. Group 4: Investment in AI/Cloud Infrastructure - Alibaba has committed to investing at least RMB 380 billion (approximately $52-53 billion) over the next three years, reflecting its "full-stack + open" strategy [4]. - The company is matching large-scale cloud and database services (IaaS/PaaS) with self-developed inference silicon chips and rapidly iterating model layers [4]. Group 5: Restructuring of Business Models - The efficiency dividends brought by AI technology will allow merchants to save on operating expenses and achieve higher conversion rates, benefiting consumers with better recommendations, content, and pricing [5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that consumers will remain the biggest beneficiaries, while Alibaba can monetize part of the incremental surplus through improved efficiency and advertising returns [5]. Group 6: Valuation Considerations - Due to distortions in financial outlook from investments in food delivery and flash sales, Morgan Stanley suggests valuing Alibaba based on fiscal year 2028 [6]. - According to analysts' earnings forecasts, the current stock price corresponds to a 12x expected P/E ratio for fiscal year 2028, indicating significant room for valuation adjustments [6].