杨瑞龙：稳价格关键是稳收入，提振消费的关键是增加收入

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures in China's economy, highlighting the need for targeted macroeconomic policies to address the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand and overcapacity [4][5][6]. Demand Analysis - Insufficient effective demand is primarily characterized by a lack of consumption demand with purchasing power, which is influenced by stagnant or declining income levels [5]. - The main source of household income is wage income, which has been negatively impacted by high youth unemployment rates and declining job quality [5]. - The decline in real estate prices has worsened household balance sheets, leading to increased savings rates and suppressed consumption [5][6]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities [6]. - Corporate revenue has been declining due to market sluggishness and increased competition, leading to lower investment demand [6]. - Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and related tax revenues, further limiting their investment capacity [6]. Supply Analysis - The current overcapacity issue is exacerbated by the "involution" phenomenon, which reflects a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms [6][7]. - The failure of the price clearing mechanism has resulted in persistent overcapacity, as firms are not incentivized to exit the market despite losses [7][9]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, it is essential to stabilize income, which hinges on employment and corporate stability [7]. - The focus of fiscal policy should shift from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending [7]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is crucial, as its decline negatively impacts the balance sheets of households, businesses, and local governments [8]. - Addressing the "involution" issue requires reconstructing market clearing mechanisms to ensure that supply and demand can adjust effectively [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to enhance the market exit mechanisms for inefficient firms, particularly state-owned enterprises [10]. - The alignment of fiscal powers and responsibilities at the local government level is critical to prevent the maintenance of inefficient capacities [10]. - Introducing competition policies across various sectors will ensure equal access and exit for all market participants [10].