大摩：比预期更久，这轮“旧存储”涨价周期会持续到2026年

Core Viewpoint - The prosperity period for legacy memory chips is stronger and longer than expected, potentially lasting until 2026, driven by supply constraints in mainstream memory chips leading to price increases in DDR4, DDR3, and NOR Flash [2][3]. Group 1: Mainstream Market Supply Issues - The report highlights a significant supply shortage in the mainstream memory market, which is crucial for understanding the legacy chip market dynamics [4]. - In the DRAM sector, major suppliers have ceased providing quotes for Q4, indicating a strong signal of impending price hikes due to supply shortages [5]. - In the NAND sector, SanDisk's discussions with PSMC for potential capacity support reflect the broader supply challenges facing the NAND industry [5]. Group 2: Price Trends for Legacy Memory Chips - The shortage effects in the mainstream market are rapidly impacting the legacy DDR4 and DDR3 markets, with price increases potentially exceeding those of mainstream products [6]. - A significant supply gap for DDR4 is expected, with a forecasted 10-15% shortfall over the next three quarters, leading to potential contract price increases of over 100% in Q4 [7]. - The validity period for DDR4 quotes has shortened to less than a month, indicating that contract prices may adjust upwards within weeks [7]. - DDR3 prices are also rising strongly, with expectations of "high double-digit" growth by Q4 [8]. Group 3: NOR Flash Market Dynamics - The price increase trend for legacy NOR Flash appears more sustainable, driven by emerging demand [9]. - The report maintains a forecast of a 5-10% price increase for NOR Flash in Q4, supported by growing demand from IoT and server sectors [10]. - The demand for NOR Flash is expected to expand, with projections indicating that AirPods alone could account for 5-10% of global NOR Flash demand by 2026, further supporting price increases [10].