【广发宏观陈嘉荔】国庆假期海外宏观关注点

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices reached a new high during the National Day holiday, with London spot gold rising from $3,825.3 per ounce on September 30 to $3,949.45 per ounce on October 6, driven by changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, rising U.S. policy uncertainty, and central bank purchases [1][5] - The structural demand for gold from central banks remains resilient, with an estimated demand of approximately 415 tons in the first half of 2025, higher than the average of 410.8 tons from 2022 to 2024 [5][6] - Emerging market central banks have significantly lower gold allocation compared to developed economies, indicating a potential for increased gold purchases to diversify reserves and hedge against geopolitical risks [6][7] Group 2: U.S. Economic Developments - The U.S. government entered a shutdown on October 1 due to a budget impasse, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees, which is significantly higher than the 380,000 during the 2018-2019 shutdown [12][14] - Economic data releases will be interrupted during the shutdown, potentially leading to a temporary decline in consumer spending [12][13] - The political deadlock reflects a struggle between the Republican and Democratic parties over budget priorities, with implications for future fiscal policy and economic stability [12][14] Group 3: European Economic Outlook - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that the Eurozone is performing well despite uncertainties, with growth obstacles expected to fade by next year and inflation nearing the 2% medium-term target [15][16] - Recent U.S. economic data has shown mixed results, with job openings increasing by 19,000 in August, while private sector employment decreased by 32,000 in September, indicating a cooling in hiring demand [17][18] Group 4: Japanese Political and Economic Changes - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lead to a shift towards growth-oriented fiscal expansion in Japan, with a focus on strategic fiscal spending to stimulate employment and consumer confidence [22][24] - Takaichi's policies include cash subsidies for low-income families and increased investment in advanced industries, which may pressure Japan's long-term debt sustainability [22][23] Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - OpenAI announced the integration of third-party applications into ChatGPT, transforming it into a comprehensive platform, and signed a significant computing infrastructure agreement with AMD [25][26] - This move is seen as a shift from an AI assistant to an AI operating platform, enhancing user retention and monetization potential, while raising concerns about potential valuation bubbles in the AI sector [26][27] Group 6: Global Asset Market Trends - During the National Day holiday, U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, while European stock markets saw gains, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 1.4% and the German DAX increasing by 2.1% [4][27] - Chinese assets showed significant gains, with the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index rising by 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the Chinese market [4][27]