高工锂电年会前瞻｜加工费修复，六氟磷酸锂领涨

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a price rebound in hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F), driven by supply-demand dynamics and increasing demand from energy storage and automotive sectors [2][3][6]. Supply Side - The current effective monthly production capacity for 6F is approximately 24,500 tons, while demand in September is expected to exceed 23,000 tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [5]. - Major companies dominate the market, with the top three firms accounting for over 70% of production [5]. - The price of 6F has increased from 50,000 yuan/ton to 58,500 yuan/ton since August, reflecting a rise of over 15% [4]. - The cost increase in lithium carbonate contributes to a cost increment of about 3,000-5,000 yuan/ton, but the actual price increase of 6F exceeds this range, indicating a shift in processing fee dynamics [5]. - Limited new production capacity is expected, with leading companies operating at over 80% utilization [7]. - A significant cost gap of over 30,000 yuan/ton exists between leading and smaller firms, suggesting potential for further processing fee increases [7]. Demand Side - The surge in demand for energy storage batteries has been a key driver for the price increase, with production rates hitting historical highs since July [6]. - The upcoming fourth quarter is anticipated to see increased demand from both domestic and international automotive companies, further boosting the need for 6F [6]. - Industry estimates predict that demand for energy storage and power batteries will maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2025, providing long-term support for 6F [6]. Future Outlook - The supply-demand balance for 6F is expected to tighten, with a potential supply gap emerging by Q4 2026, which could lead to stronger price elasticity [8]. - Processing fees for 6F are projected to rise by 2,000 yuan/ton starting in Q4 2025, with further increases of 5,000-20,000 yuan/ton anticipated in 2026, indicating a recovery in performance and potential for growth [7].