半导体行业观察·2025-10-04 02:14Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid price increase of SSDs, DRAM, and HDDs due to surging demand from artificial intelligence and supply constraints, predicting a potential shortage lasting up to ten years [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The transition from a surplus to a shortage in the memory market is driven by extreme demand from AI and hyperscalers, leading to a broad supply tightening across all categories [4][10]. - NAND flash and DRAM prices, which had reached historical lows in 2023, are now on an upward trajectory as manufacturers cut production to manage excess inventory [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - By early 2024, retail prices for SSDs have surged, with Western Digital's 2TB Black SN850X exceeding $150 and Samsung's 990 Pro 2TB rising from approximately $120 to over $175 [5][6]. - Predictions indicate that consumer-grade DDR4 memory prices will rise by 38%-43% quarter-over-quarter by Q3 2025, while server-grade DDR4 will increase by 28%-33% [6][10]. Group 3: AI Demand Impact - The core driver of the current memory shortage is the insatiable demand from AI, with large language model training requiring vast amounts of memory and storage [7][8]. - OpenAI's Stargate project has secured agreements to purchase up to 900,000 DRAM wafers monthly, representing nearly 40% of global DRAM production [7]. Group 4: Supply Chain Constraints - Manufacturers are shifting capital expenditures towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced process nodes, leading to reduced investment in NAND and DRAM production [9][10]. - The construction of new wafer fabs is hindered by high costs and long lead times, with new facilities costing billions and taking years to become operational [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The conservative strategies adopted by manufacturers suggest that high prices for NAND flash, DRAM, and HDDs may persist until at least 2026, impacting both consumers and enterprises [13][14]. - The market may eventually rebalance, but the timeline remains uncertain, with potential government incentives for new fabs and the risk of future supply surpluses if demand wanes [13][14].