一周前瞻 | 美政府关门或将持续，数据真空期来临；美联储内部鹰鸽分歧，鲍威尔将登场

Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown is likely to continue, affecting the release of key economic data such as trade balance, initial jobless claims, and inventory data [2] - If a temporary funding agreement is reached, the September employment report may still be released next week [2] - The shutdown could lead to increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to potential job losses and economic output declines [3] Group 2: Market Reactions to the Shutdown - The shutdown has triggered a "devaluation" trade, leading to a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin surpassing its previous record [4] - U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached record highs, while gold prices increased by over 2% [4] - Bitcoin's rise is attributed to its growing correlation with traditional risk assets amid the shutdown [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Diverging Views - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the relationship between a slowing job market and rising inflation risks [5] - Some Fed officials advocate for a cautious approach to rate cuts, while others call for more aggressive cuts [5] - The upcoming release of the Fed's September meeting minutes is highly anticipated for insights into officials' stances on rate cuts [7] Group 4: OpenAI's Developer Day Expectations - OpenAI is set to hold a Developer Day on October 6, with expectations for new consumer AI products and a potential AI browser launch [8] - UBS forecasts OpenAI aims to grow its revenue from $13 billion to $200 billion by 2030, necessitating new growth engines beyond ChatGPT [8] - The focus of the Developer Day is expected to include travel booking agents and other consumer-level AI innovations [8]