固态初创企业生存法则：避开动力储能大赛道，细分场景寻出路

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is shifting focus from mainstream markets like power and energy storage to niche markets, reflecting a pragmatic approach to commercialization and technology application [3][11][27]. Market Overview - The lithium battery industry is primarily driven by two core application scenarios: power batteries and energy storage, which together account for a significant market share. In the first half of 2025, China's total lithium battery shipments reached 776 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68%, with power batteries at 477 GWh (up 49%) and energy storage batteries at 265 GWh (up 128%) [4][5]. - Despite the potential for solid-state batteries to capture even 1% of these markets, the current dominance of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, due to their cost advantages and performance improvements, poses a significant challenge for solid-state batteries to gain market share in the short term [5][6]. Cost and Performance Analysis - The competitive landscape shows that the cost of materials is a decisive factor, with LFP batteries gaining market share due to lower raw material costs and economies of scale, while ternary batteries are losing ground [6][7]. - Solid-state batteries currently have a much higher cost than ternary batteries, making it nearly impossible to compete in the cost-sensitive power and energy storage markets [6][10]. Niche Market Opportunities - Solid-state battery startups are now targeting niche markets where their technology can meet specific performance and safety needs, such as high-end consumer products (e.g., premium power banks and electric motorcycles) and military applications [11][12][14]. - In high-end consumer markets, consumers are less price-sensitive and more focused on safety and performance, allowing solid-state batteries to find a foothold despite higher prices [13]. - Military and specialized equipment sectors demand high energy density and safety, which solid-state batteries can provide, making them suitable for these applications [14][15]. Technological Transition - The industry is currently seeing a transition towards semi-solid-state batteries, which serve as a bridge between liquid and full solid-state batteries, balancing performance and cost effectively [18][19]. - Semi-solid-state batteries can mitigate safety risks associated with high energy densities in traditional batteries, and their technology is advancing towards mass production capabilities [19][20]. Industry Trends - The solid-state battery sector is entering a phase of pragmatic development characterized by three trends: accelerated commercialization, the central role of semi-solid-state batteries as a transitional technology, and the long-term coexistence of solid and liquid batteries [23][25][26]. - The industry is moving from a conceptual phase to a commercial phase, with several startups establishing significant production capacities for semi-solid-state batteries [24][27]. - The future landscape will see solid-state batteries complementing liquid batteries in niche markets, rather than directly competing in mainstream applications [26][27].