国泰海通 · 晨报1009｜海外策略、固收

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 33% and 49% respectively [4] - After a weak performance from mid-June to the end of August, the market rebounded in September, driven by optimism in the AI sector from major internet companies like Alibaba and Baidu [4][6] - Current valuations in the Hong Kong market are not high, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a PE of 12.1x, which is below the historical median and lower than the A-share market [5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to be the main driver of market performance in the fourth quarter, benefiting from trends in AI and potential foreign capital inflows due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The valuation attractiveness of the technology sector is highlighted, with the Hang Seng Tech Index PE at 24.6x, which is at the 37th percentile historically [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [12] - The overall economic environment remains characterized by stronger supply than demand, with price transmission issues evident in the market [12] Group 4: Global Asset Performance - Major global stock indices showed positive performance leading up to the National Day holiday, with significant gains in Asian markets, including a 5.7% increase in the Nikkei 225 [13] - The bond market also saw a general upward trend, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields declining by 2.0 basis points to 4.18% [13]