重新审视社会保障问题的核心｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need to address the sustainability of the pension system in China, driven by factors such as aging population, labor market challenges, and the potential for increased productivity through artificial intelligence. It argues that the issue is not a lack of material wealth but rather inadequate institutional arrangements to support social security [4][5][10]. Group 1: Factors Affecting Pension Sustainability - The first factor is demographic, with a rapidly increasing aging rate. By 2032, over 21% of China's population will be aged 65 and above, indicating a significant aging society while income levels remain relatively low compared to developed nations [7]. - The second factor is the labor market, characterized by structural employment issues, high youth unemployment (17.8% for ages 16-24), and the challenges faced by older workers nearing retirement [8][9]. - The third factor is labor productivity, which has the potential for unlimited growth due to advancements in artificial intelligence. The expected annual growth rate of the "supporting productivity" for the working-age population is projected at 5.55%, outpacing the growth of the elderly dependency ratio [9][10]. Group 2: Institutional Arrangements and Recommendations - Current social security arrangements are insufficient to share the benefits of increased productivity, necessitating reforms in the pension system to ensure equitable distribution of wealth generated by productivity gains [12][19]. - The article suggests establishing a universal social security system that includes a "living wage" and "unconditional basic income" to address the challenges posed by artificial intelligence and ensure comprehensive coverage for all citizens [19][20]. - It also advocates for a reconsideration of nominal account systems, emphasizing the need for a record-keeping approach that does not require actual funding but ensures the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go pension system [20][21].