AI盈利隐忧，美股终结连涨势头

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market faced downward pressure, with major indices ending a multi-day rally. Oracle's disappointing profit margins in its AI business led the decline, while investors remained cautious about the ongoing government shutdown [1][6][8] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.38% to 6,714.59, ending a seven-day upward trend. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 0.67% to 22,788.36, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.2% to 46,602.98 [1][2] Gold Market Dynamics - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, closing at a record $4,007.90, driven by investor concerns over dollar credit, geopolitical issues, and asset safety [2][5] - Gold prices have surged approximately 50% this year, with a 10% decline in the dollar index making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus stimulating demand [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have diminished the appeal of short-term debt instruments, further enhancing gold's attractiveness as a zero-yield asset [5][6] Investment Sentiment - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to gold, emphasizing its role as a reliable asset during poor performance of typical investments [6] - The market is reflecting on the substantial investments in AI and questioning the expected returns, with concerns that current expectations may be overly optimistic [7] Political and Economic Risks - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its seventh day, poses increasing risks to the economy, delaying key economic data and affecting federal employees' salaries [8] - The political deadlock in Washington has created uncertainty, with the Senate failing to pass funding legislation, which could lead to greater pressure on Congress to reach an agreement [8] Future Projections for Gold - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing expected continued purchases by central banks and individual investors [16] - UBS projected gold prices could reach $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026, indicating further upside potential amid a backdrop of expected Fed policy easing and persistent inflation [16]