36氪·2025-10-07 13:06Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has outperformed its peers in the banking sector, achieving a significant stock price increase and becoming the "new king" of A-shares, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in market capitalization [4][18]. Market Performance - As of September 30, 2025, ABC's A-share price increased by 30.56% year-to-date, while the other three major banks experienced declines between -1% and -10% [5]. - Since March 2023, ABC's cumulative increase has exceeded 168%, compared to approximately 99% for ICBC, 81% for China Construction Bank (CCB), and 88% for Bank of China (BOC) [5]. Profitability Comparison - In the first half of 2025, ABC was the only major bank to report a net profit growth of 2.53%, reaching 139.943 billion yuan, while the other three banks faced negative growth [11]. - ABC's focus on county-level markets has helped mitigate pressure from narrowing interest margins, with over 50% of its deposits coming from these areas [13]. Loan and Deposit Structure - ABC's average interest rate on deposits decreased by 28 basis points to 1.42%, with county-level deposits averaging 1.35% [13]. - The average yield on county-level loans was 3.09%, higher than the overall loan yield, with county loans exceeding 10 trillion yuan, accounting for 40.9% of total loans [13][14]. Risk Management and Asset Quality - ABC's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.28%, and its provision coverage ratio rose to 295%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [20]. - The bank's stable earnings and risk management have established a foundation for dividend payouts, with a proposed cash dividend of 1.195 yuan per share [21]. Investment Appeal - ABC's stock has attracted significant investment, with social security funds holding over 138.3 billion yuan in shares, and insurance funds increasing their stakes [22]. - The bank's relatively low H-share circulation ratio (9%) minimizes the impact of H-share discounts, contributing to its higher market valuation [23]. Future Growth Potential - ABC's loan balance in county areas reached 10.77 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.3%, indicating strong potential in underserved markets [26]. - The People's Bank of China's recent measures to support agricultural and small business lending are expected to enhance ABC's loan attractiveness [27]. Conclusion - ABC's performance is driven by its strategic focus on county-level markets, strong asset quality, and effective risk management, positioning it well for future growth amid a challenging banking environment [28][29].