独家洞察 | 美国政府被迫“放假” 金价飙升

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. government shutdown due to a budget impasse between the Republican and Democratic parties, highlighting the implications for federal employees and the economy [4][5]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Details - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, starting from October 1, 2023, due to the failure of Congress to pass a temporary funding bill before the budget deadline [4]. - The shutdown results in federal employees being placed on unpaid leave, with only essential services like weather, medical systems, and military operations continuing to function [4][5]. - The last government shutdown lasted 35 days from 2018 to 2019, marking the longest in U.S. history, primarily due to a standoff over funding for a border wall [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current crisis stems from disagreements over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats seeking to extend medical assistance provisions while Republicans refuse to negotiate [5]. - There is a notable lack of cooperation between the two parties, with mutual accusations and a hardened stance, indicating deep political divides [5]. - A potential resolution may depend on former President Trump's willingness to engage in discussions regarding healthcare, which could lead to a temporary reopening of the government [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The government shutdown raises concerns about a cooling job market and undermines government credit, leading to increased market risk aversion [6]. - Following the second failed vote on a funding bill, gold prices surged, surpassing $3900 per ounce, reflecting its status as a reliable hedge during periods of uncertainty [6]. - Historical data suggests that during prolonged shutdowns, gold typically sees an average increase of 2%, with projections indicating that gold prices could reach $4200 per ounce by mid-2026 [6].