大涨能持续到节后吗？——A股一周走势研判及事件提醒

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The consumption sector in China is expected to remain weak for the rest of the year, with limited wealth effect despite recent stock market performance [1] - During the first six days of the National Day holiday, the box office for films reached 1.54 billion yuan, marking a 19.8% decline compared to the same period in 2024 and a 60.4% drop from 2019 [1] - New home sales in 14 cities totaled 307,000 square meters from October 1-5, down 27.2% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing resilience while second and third-tier cities face significant adjustment pressure [1][3] Group 2: Political Developments - The election of high-profile political figures in Japan reflects a global trend towards right-wing populism, with implications for economic policies [5] - The new leadership is expected to rely on fiscal spending to drive economic growth, which may affect market expectations regarding interest rates and currency values [6] Group 3: Technology Sector - OpenAI held its largest developer conference, announcing a significant partnership with AMD to build AI data centers, with the first deployment of AMD's GPU expected in late 2026 [8][14] - The demand for AI products has led Dell to significantly raise its revenue growth forecast for the next four years, nearly doubling its annual growth rate to 7%-9% [8] - Samsung and SK Hynix signed an agreement to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data centers, indicating a growing demand in the AI sector [15] Group 4: Market Insights - The market is expected to see a structural recovery post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like AI, new drugs, and renewable energy [12] - Recent trends indicate a shift towards resource sectors, with precious and base metals prices rising during the holiday [11] - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trajectory, supported by structural characteristics and liquidity [12][27] Group 5: Industry Performance - The gold market has seen prices reach historical highs, with domestic gold jewelry prices exceeding 1160 yuan per gram [13] - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in video generation technology and applications [22] - The energy storage sector is also expanding, with Tesla reporting a substantial increase in storage product installations [19]