美股IPO·2025-10-09 04:48Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the technology industry, but the complex capital flows and business relationships behind it are raising concerns about systemic risks in the sector [2] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights an increasingly interconnected "circularity" within the AI ecosystem, where major players form intricate networks through investments, procurement, and revenue-sharing agreements [2] AI Ecosystem Dynamics - The core dynamics of this circularity are evident between AI giants and their suppliers, with OpenAI's substantial procurement commitments significantly impacting the financial health of its suppliers [3] - OpenAI's contracts account for two-thirds of Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) and approximately 40% of CoreWeave's RPO, contributing over $330 billion to a total of about $880 billion in RPO across three companies [3] Supplier Risks - The concentrated customer relationships mean that the future growth and success of these suppliers are closely tied to OpenAI's fate [4] - Data center operators are making significant capital commitments, with procurement promises increasing by $100 billion to $330 billion over the past year, alongside leasing commitments rising to $340 billion [4] Complex AI Stakeholder Relationships - Morgan Stanley's report details the intertwined transaction models within the AI ecosystem, including equity investments by suppliers to fund customers, cross-shareholding, and revenue-sharing agreements [5] - These complex agreements, while facilitating data center construction and capacity locking, obscure the true commercial logic and may exaggerate market demand [5] Capital Flow Breakdown - The report outlines significant capital flows in the AI industry, including Nvidia's intention to invest $100 billion in OpenAI and various contracts with CoreWeave and Oracle [8][10] - Oracle's contracts with OpenAI and CoreWeave are highlighted as some of the largest in history, with OpenAI's procurement contract valued at approximately $300 billion [12] Customer Concentration Risks - The report emphasizes that while these long-term contracts are legally binding, companies often renegotiate terms to maintain customer relationships, especially during financial difficulties [15] - The lack of transparency regarding customer concentration poses significant business risks, as highlighted by Oracle's failure to disclose that a substantial portion of its RPO growth was driven by a single contract with OpenAI [17] Disclosure Recommendations - The report calls for enhanced disclosures in four key areas: related-party transactions, customer concentration, revenue-sharing arrangements, and vendor financing [17][19] - It stresses the importance of transparency in these areas to allow investors to make informed decisions, particularly given the high valuations driven by AI [17]