摩尔投研精选·2025-10-09 10:09Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "good start" after the National Day holiday, with major indices generally rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully breaking through 3900 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.65 trillion, an increase of 471.8 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating active market sentiment and high participation from funds [2] Sector Performance - The market displayed a clear structural trend, with funds concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, particularly gold, rare earths, and copper, as well as controllable nuclear fusion (nuclear power) [3] - Conversely, the film and tourism sectors generally declined due to the fading holiday effect and other factors [4] Regulatory Changes - A significant announcement was made regarding the adjustment of the financing and securities lending margin ratio for SMIC and Bawen Storage stocks to zero, effective from October 9, 2025 [5] - This adjustment is not a special treatment for individual stocks but rather a risk control measure established by the stock exchange [7] - The implications include a restriction on the ability to finance these stocks, which may reduce market buying pressure and exert short-term downward pressure on stock prices. This led to a shift in market sentiment, particularly affecting SMIC, a heavyweight in the semiconductor sector, causing a chain reaction in other stocks within the sector [8] Investment Strategies - Historically, the fourth quarter tends to favor stable low-valuation and early-cycle sectors, provided two conditions are met: a steady recovery in the natural economic cycle and significant macro or policy narratives supporting expectations for the following year [10][11][12] - In years with active industry tracks but limited macroeconomic highlights, fourth-quarter stock prices often provide stronger guidance for the following year's performance [13] - Current trends in sectors such as optical modules, PCB, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals remain healthy, although innovative pharmaceuticals are currently in a consolidation phase [14] - The historical pattern since 2012 indicates that a period of consolidation does not necessarily signal the end of a trend, as long as the industry trend remains intact [15] - Other sectors with high overlap, such as automotive parts, robotics, power grid equipment, consumer electronics, and dividend assets, have recently shown stagnation [16]