【周观点】9月第4周乘用车环比+26.7%，继续看好汽车板块

Investment Highlights - In the fourth week of September, compulsory insurance reached 644,000 vehicles, with a week-on-week increase of 26.7% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [2][9] - The performance of segmented automotive sectors ranked as follows: SW commercial cargo vehicles (+3.8%) > SW passenger vehicles (+2.8%) > SW automotive (+1.7%) = SW automotive parts (+1.7%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (-1.7%) [2][9] - The top five stocks covered this week with the highest gains were Songyuan Safety, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Silis, Xinquan Co., and Yadi Holdings [2][9] Core Industry Changes - Tesla released the FSD V14 version, expanding the model scale by 10 times and increasing the context length by 3 times; a simplified version of Model 3 and Model Y was launched in the U.S. market with a price reduction of $5,000 to cope with subsidy declines [3][9] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 42,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 95% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [3][9] - Li Auto delivered 34,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year decrease of 37% but a month-on-month increase of 19% [3][9] - WeRide entered the third emirate of the UAE, Ras Al Khaimah, to begin trial operations of Robotaxi and Robobus [3][9] - 700 Yutong buses were delivered to Turkmenistan [3][9] - Xinquan Co. redeemed its "New 23 Convertible Bonds" ahead of schedule [3][9] Q4 Focus on AI Smart Vehicle Investment Opportunities - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the electric vehicle (EV) dividend nearing its end and the smart vehicle sector in a "dark before dawn" stage, indicating a shift in investment logic [4][5] - Key investment opportunities include: - AI Smart Vehicle Mainline: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan, with downstream application core stocks including Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Qianli Technology [5][10] - C-end Vehicle Sales Perspective: Key players include Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, and the Huawei and Xiaomi ecosystems [5][10] - Upstream Supply Chain Perspective: Key players include BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, and SAIC Group for B-end vehicle manufacturing, and various core suppliers for components like chips and sensors [5][10] Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance in the A-share market ranked 10th this week, while the Hong Kong market ranked 12th [14] - The automotive sector has shown a general upward trend, with SW commercial cargo vehicles performing the best [19][20] - The overall vehicle insurance data for the week indicates a total of 644,000 vehicles, with new energy vehicles accounting for 368,000, reflecting a penetration rate of 57.2% [52]