美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持9月不降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4% to 4.25% reflects a consensus among officials that the importance of slowing job growth outweighs concerns about persistent high inflation, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the only dissenting vote from newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Most officials expressed a willingness to consider further rate cuts in the remaining months of the year, while also acknowledging the risks of inflation [4][6]. - The dot plot from the September meeting indicates that officials expect two more rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of the year, although there are differing opinions among the 19 participants regarding future cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Investors generally anticipate another 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with futures contracts reflecting expectations for continued cuts in October and December [8]. - Despite recognizing risks in the labor market, many officials believe that employment will not deteriorate rapidly, with recent indicators not showing significant declines [8]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as it has remained above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with fears that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth, potentially stabilizing inflation around 3% [9]. Group 3: Policy Considerations - Officials reiterated the importance of balancing employment and inflation risks in future decisions, with some expressing caution about further rate cuts given the current borrowing conditions [11][12]. - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, limiting the information available to Fed officials for making informed decisions [13][14]. - The absence of official monthly economic data coincides with a particularly uncertain period, as the Fed navigates the impacts of significant policy changes, including tariffs and stricter immigration policies [15][16].