国泰海通｜黄金 · 宏观专题研究合集

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the changing dynamics of gold pricing and its relationship with fiat currencies, particularly in the context of a global economic shift and the decline in trust among nations [2][4][6] - The historical correlation between gold prices and the actual interest rates of the US dollar has broken down since 2022, indicating a significant shift in the gold pricing framework [4][6] - The demand for gold is increasingly driven by non-economic factors, such as geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of the international order, rather than traditional economic indicators [4][6] Group 2 - A quantitative model for gold pricing has been proposed, predicting potential future prices under different scenarios: optimistic (over $3,800 per ounce), neutral (around $3,200 per ounce), and pessimistic ($2,600-$2,700 per ounce) [4] - The articles emphasize that the current bull market for gold is not primarily driven by economic factors but rather by a long-term shift in the global monetary system and trust issues among countries [4][6] - The articles suggest that the core variables driving gold prices have shifted, and it remains uncertain whether gold can revert to being priced based on US dollar interest rates [6]