光大证券研究·2025-10-09 23:08Group 1: Macro Insights - The recent surge in gold prices during the National Day holiday is driven by three new variables: concerns over U.S. fiscal credibility due to government shutdown, changes in Japanese and European political landscapes affecting currency credibility, and significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating rising risk aversion among private investors [5][6][9] - Current corporate earnings are still stabilizing, with signs of improvement in certain sectors, such as a rebound in industrial profits and a narrowing decline in PPI. Domestic exports are expected to remain resilient, and the support from policies may lead to a slight recovery in A-share earnings in Q4 [5][6] Group 2: Market Trends - In September 2025, 11 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 11.69 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase in new stock issuance. The average first-day gains for new stocks remain high, with main board stocks averaging a 131.33% increase and growth enterprise board stocks averaging a 251.9% increase [6][8] - The issuance scale of credit bonds continues to grow, with a total of 1.24 trillion yuan issued in September 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.27%. The total outstanding credit bond balance reached 30.49 trillion yuan by the end of September [8] Group 3: Industry Developments - The BEST project for controlled nuclear fusion has made significant progress, with the installation of the dewar base completed ahead of schedule. This marks the beginning of a new phase in the project, with upcoming tenders for key components expected to accelerate development [8][9] - OpenAI's launch of Sora2 and its Apps SDK is reshaping the AI ecosystem, emphasizing that AI enhances traditional SaaS rather than replacing it, which may alleviate market pessimism regarding AI applications [9]