热点思考 | 六问美国政府“关门”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core reason for the US government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, particularly the enhanced tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, with Democrats advocating for their extension and Republicans opposing the bundling of this issue with temporary funding measures [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration, as the House has passed a temporary funding bill but the Senate has failed to reach the necessary votes [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and consumer price indices [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the US government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, with an average duration of 8.6 days, and October is noted as a peak month for such events [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, with the latter often involving the bundling of unrelated policy issues with budget negotiations [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02%, primarily due to delayed government spending and employee salaries [4][24][44] - A previous shutdown lasting 34 days resulted in a permanent GDP loss of approximately $3 billion, which also corresponds to a 0.02% reduction in GDP for that year [4][24][44] Group 5 - The shutdown may lead to a slight temporary increase in the unemployment rate, but this is expected to revert after government operations resume [5][29][30][45] - During the 2019 shutdown, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points but subsequently fell by 0.2 percentage points after the government reopened [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of a government shutdown on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - Treasury yields tend to decline slightly during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The US dollar typically weakens but the decline is modest, averaging a drop of 0.30% during shutdowns [6][36][46]