犹如1990年代重演，FOMO压倒一切，美股期权交易者陷入狂欢

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by extreme optimism, with a significant influx of bullish options trading, reminiscent of the late 1990s, which may indicate potential future return reductions despite the possibility of a prolonged bubble [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The options market is showing record enthusiasm for bullish options, with the volume of call options surpassing put options at the highest level in four years [2]. - Barclays' stock frenzy indicator reflects a high level of bullish sentiment among retail investors, with a one-month moving average at approximately 14.3%, nearly three standard deviations above the long-term average [2][4]. - Historical data suggests that when a significant proportion of stocks exhibit signs of euphoria, it typically precedes a decrease in future returns [2][5]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Trends - Investor optimism is primarily concentrated in a few high-flying stocks, particularly in the technology sector, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising about 19% this year and the S&P 500 Index up 15% [5]. - Stocks related to artificial intelligence, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, have seen substantial gains of approximately 38% and 45%, respectively [5]. - The strong demand for bullish options is creating a "positive feedback loop," where investors buying call options lead option sellers to hedge their risks by purchasing underlying stocks, further driving up prices [5]. Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Despite the high market sentiment, historical trends indicate that such euphoria often signals a weakening of future returns, with excessive bullish sentiment historically leading to pauses in market momentum [5][6]. - Barclays' frenzy indicator highlights that stocks showing signs of excessive enthusiasm tend to have negative average performance in subsequent trading days [6]. - Investors face a dilemma between chasing upward momentum and guarding against potential market reversals, with discussions about hedging upward risks becoming as frequent as those about hedging downward risks [6].