中金：详解新一轮政策性金融工具

Core Viewpoint - The new round of policy financial tools, announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on September 29, aims to mobilize approximately 5 trillion yuan in new investments, potentially alleviating the "asset shortage" in credit markets [2][3][4]. Group 1: Background and Purpose - The new policy financial tools were first proposed during the Politburo meeting on April 25, 2023, marking the third historical round of such tools, with previous rounds launched in 2015-2017 and 2022 to address economic downturn pressures [3][7]. - This round differs from previous ones as it focuses on supporting technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and addressing local fiscal pressures, rather than solely on infrastructure [3][4][7][8]. Group 2: Funding Allocation - The scale of the new policy financial tools is set at 500 billion yuan, similar to the 740 billion yuan from 2022, but with a different focus on sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy, rather than primarily infrastructure [4][11]. - A portion of the funds will also support private enterprises, reflecting a strong policy direction towards bolstering the private economy [4][11]. Group 3: Financial Policy Coordination - The new policy financial tools will be implemented through a collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies, with policy banks using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to invest project capital, leveraging additional funding from fiscal or corporate sources [3][14][16]. - The expected leverage ratio is around 4 times, meaning that the 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools could mobilize approximately 4 trillion yuan in bank loans [4][16]. Group 4: Impact on Credit and Investment - The tools are projected to stimulate about 4 trillion yuan in loans, increasing loan growth by 1.5 percentage points and social financing growth by 1.0 percentage points, while also potentially driving fixed asset investment growth by around 10 percentage points [4][23]. - The anticipated increase in loans could help reverse the declining trend in medium to long-term corporate loans, which fell from 18% in June 2023 to 8% in August 2023, thereby alleviating the "asset shortage" in the banking sector [4][23][26].