如何辨识有韧性的公司及创始人？BG旗舰基金掌舵人最新分享

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in an era of uncertainty, the true long-term winners are not those companies that appear risk-free, but rather those that demonstrate resilience and continuously adapt to challenges [3][4]. Group 1: Understanding Uncertainty - The distinction between risk and uncertainty is highlighted, with risk being quantifiable and insurable, while uncertainty is unpredictable and creates opportunities for entrepreneurs [7][8]. - Current uncertainties include pandemics, natural disasters, financial pressures, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions, which complicate the global economic landscape [10]. Group 2: Resilient Companies - Resilience is defined as the ability of companies to withstand shocks, with financial characteristics such as manageable debt, sufficient gross margins, and consistent cash flow being crucial [18][19]. - Cultural aspects, such as leadership by founders who can make unconventional decisions and drive organizational change, are also important for resilience [18]. Group 3: Examples of Resilient Companies - Shopify is cited as an example of a company that has transitioned to a model that retains about 20% of revenue after covering operational costs, allowing it to remain flexible [20]. - Meta has improved its operational efficiency, positioning itself favorably for better business conditions [20]. - Cloudflare has shown increasing profitability, enabling it to withstand external shocks [21]. Group 4: Creating Opportunities - Resilient companies have the ability to "create their own climate," allowing them to thrive even in challenging environments [23]. - Companies like Ferrari and Oddity demonstrate how innovation and brand strength can drive growth despite industry challenges [24]. Group 5: Focus on Predictable Elements - The article stresses the importance of focusing on predictable trends, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, electric vehicle batteries, and cloud computing, to identify resilient companies [30].