国泰海通｜基金评价：国泰海通证券10月基金投资策略

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a slow bull trend in September, with the effects of anti-involution policies reflected in the August PPI data, leading to continued increases in major broad-based indices [1] Fund Investment Strategy - In September, the manufacturing PMI was at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the average of the past three years for the same period, indicating seasonal growth [2] - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with market adjustments presenting opportunities; A/H shares are anticipated to reach new highs [2] - Emerging technology remains a key investment theme, with new industries entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle; financial sector allocations are recommended due to potential dividend returns after adjustments [2] - The shift in economic governance thinking behind anti-involution policies is expected to improve the supply-demand balance for cyclical goods [2] - Hong Kong's technology and pharmaceutical sectors are likely to continue their recovery [2] - For 2024, both value and growth styles are expected to present structural investment opportunities, suggesting a balanced fund allocation with a slight tilt towards growth [2] Bond Fund Strategy - The bond market is likely entering a stabilization phase in October, with recommendations to focus on flexible duration rate bonds and high-grade, high-liquidity credit bonds [2] - As equity markets recover, fixed income plus funds are also seen as having certain allocation value [2] QDII and Commodity Funds - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved macro liquidity and lower real interest rates are expected to reduce the cost of holding gold, supporting its price performance [3] - While U.S. economic growth is slowing, it remains resilient, and the Fed's "preventive" monetary policy adjustments are expected to maintain a positive economic trend, supporting stable liquidity in U.S. stocks [3] - From an asset allocation perspective, U.S. stocks are seen as having a favorable risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]