国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-10 09:07Core Insights - The style rotation model accurately predicted trends in Q3 2025, with signals favoring small-cap and growth stocks for Q4 2025 [1] - The industry rotation model showed positive excess returns in September, with a monthly return of 3.33% and an excess return of 2.43% relative to the benchmark [1] Style Rotation Model - For Q4 2025, the dual-driven rotation strategy indicates a comprehensive score of -1, predicting a preference for small-cap stocks [2] - The growth style is favored in Q4 2025, with a comprehensive score of -3 from the dual-driven rotation strategy [3] Industry Rotation Insights - In September, the composite factor strategy achieved an excess return of 2.43%, while the single-factor multi-strategy had an excess return of -1.02% [3] - For October, the recommended long positions in single-factor multi-strategy include the computer, communication, electronic, non-bank financial, and banking sectors [3] - The composite factor strategy recommends long positions in home appliances, non-ferrous metals, electronics, communication, and computers [3]