张瑜：黄金需要打开想象力——张瑜旬度纪要No.123

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a strategic bullish outlook on gold, driven by a restructured global financial and political order, rather than traditional macroeconomic factors [4][9]. Research Context - The company initiated a strategic bullish view on gold at the beginning of 2023, with a report titled "Gold: A Century, A Decade, Next Year" released in December 2022 [5]. - Subsequent reports in May 2024, March 2025, and May 2025 further explored gold pricing logic and the dynamics driving gold price increases [5]. Latest Research Findings - The latest research focuses on what gold is pricing, introducing the "Implied Order Reconstruction Index" to address the limitations of traditional factors like real interest rates, inflation expectations, and the US dollar index in explaining gold's price surge [6]. - The "unconventional momentum" identified in the index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of the global financial and political order, which has been the primary driver of gold prices since 2023 [7]. Future Outlook - The "Implied Order Reconstruction Index" remains the core driver of recent gold price increases, challenging the notion that traditional factors like central bank gold purchases or Federal Reserve rate cuts are responsible for the price rise [9]. - Recent geopolitical and economic instability, such as unrest in Indonesia and political turmoil in Nepal and Argentina, has contributed to fluctuations in the index, reinforcing the view that the core force driving gold prices is the expectation of order reconstruction [9]. - The index has approached and surpassed historical highs last seen in 1980, indicating potential for further price increases if it stabilizes above this level [9]. Asset Allocation Perspective - Gold's allocation value is significant, as even a 5% allocation can optimize the risk-return profile of a diversified asset portfolio [10]. - Gold is uniquely positioned to have low correlation with both US-dominated financial assets and commodities driven by Chinese demand, enhancing its appeal as a strategic asset [10]. - The company maintains a bullish stance on gold, asserting that the recent price breakthrough of $4,000 per ounce does not signify the end of the upward trend [10].