10月锂电排产追踪：超预期旺季持续，全面进入上行周期

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by strong demand in both traditional and energy storage sectors, with production capacity tightening and a shift from passive capacity clearance to active inventory replenishment and competition for quality capacity [3][17]. Production and Capacity - In October, battery production exceeded expectations, with a 10% month-over-month increase from September's high base, and the top 20 battery manufacturers saw production increases of over 20%, with energy storage cells accounting for more than 40% of the output [3][6]. - The average operating rate in the industry is approaching 90%, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity and second-tier manufacturers rapidly increasing their utilization rates [4]. Component Analysis - Production changes by component include: positive electrode up 0.7%, negative electrode up 5.8%, separator up 4.3%, and electrolyte up 4.2% [5]. - The energy storage sector is identified as the strongest marginal driver, with domestic energy storage bidding exceeding 270 GWh from January to August, a nearly twofold year-on-year increase [6]. Market Performance - The overseas market is also performing well, with the U.S. adding 27.65 GWh of new energy storage from January to August, doubling year-on-year; Europe is beginning to replenish orders after destocking, and regions like the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are also seeing growth [7]. - Domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks exceeded 100,000 units from January to August, representing a year-on-year increase of over 180%, which is driving demand for power battery installations [8]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The production capacity for energy storage cells is tightening, enhancing the bargaining power and capacity influence of leading companies [9]. - The supply side is experiencing a shortage of energy storage specification cells, with many leading battery manufacturers reporting full production lines [10]. - If new production capacity does not come online quickly, the tight supply situation may persist until mid-2026 [11]. Material Costs and Pricing - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surpassed 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a chain reaction of price increases across electrolytes, with many companies nearing full production [11]. - The iron-lithium segment is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with the gap narrowing from 20% to around 10%, while the pricing power of leading companies remains strong [12]. - The cost pressures from rising material prices are being transmitted downstream, resulting in differentiated pricing for energy storage products [14]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity from November to December, with the first quarter of next year likely to continue the trend of "not dull in the off-season," and limited month-over-month declines in production [15]. - The industry is entering a new proactive upward cycle, with market expectations for growth in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly in the energy storage sector, being revised upward for 2026 [16][17].