从化债到化险，厘清地方债务风险的五个认知｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of properly managing local government debt to ensure stable economic operation, highlighting that debt resolution strategies should adapt to economic cycles and focus on restoring the balance sheets of local governments to stimulate endogenous economic growth [2][3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Debt and Economic Stability - Local government debt management is crucial for economic stability, as it affects the capacity and willingness of local governments to invest, which in turn influences corporate investment and consumer spending [4][7]. - In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 5.3%, but faced pressure in the third quarter due to insufficient demand and weakened consumer spending [4][5]. - The relationship between local governments, enterprises, and residents is interdependent, especially during economic downturns, where local governments play a key role in stabilizing expectations and promoting investment [6][7]. Group 2: Debt Management Strategies - The article distinguishes between "debt resolution" and "risk resolution," arguing that simply reducing debt levels can exacerbate risks if it undermines local governments' ability to invest in infrastructure and economic development [11]. - Different debt management strategies should be employed based on economic cycles: "repayment-style debt resolution" during economic upturns and "continuation-style debt resolution" during downturns [12]. - The efficiency and quality of assets corresponding to government debt are critical; thus, the focus should shift from merely controlling debt size to optimizing the structure of debt [13]. Group 3: Structural Issues in Debt Management - There are structural mismatches between the available debt resolution resources and local needs, necessitating a more flexible allocation of debt limits based on actual conditions [18]. - The scale of hidden debts remains unclear, with estimates suggesting that including recognized hidden debts raises the debt-to-GDP ratio significantly, indicating a need for better transparency and management [19]. - The current approach to replacing hidden debts with special bonds does not always align with the underlying asset quality, suggesting a need for a more nuanced strategy [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Short-term recommendations include optimizing debt resolution methods and increasing local debt limits to address immediate financial pressures from real estate adjustments [25][26]. - Long-term strategies should focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden, reforming the fiscal system, and ensuring that financing platforms transition effectively to market-oriented operations [27][28][29].