突然之间，“空美元”成了“痛苦交易”

Core Viewpoint - The strategy of shorting the dollar, which has been dominant in the forex market, is facing challenges as the dollar strengthens against major currencies, reaching a two-month high despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Hedge funds are increasing their options positions, betting on a continued rebound of the dollar until the end of the year, influenced by overseas market movements and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding further rate cuts [5]. - The strong dollar could have ripple effects on the global economy, complicating other central banks' monetary policy easing, raising commodity costs, and increasing the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5][6]. Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path is a key driver of the dollar's strength, with traders expecting about two 25 basis point rate cuts by year-end, but recent statements suggest that this trajectory is not guaranteed [8][9]. - The market has priced in aggressive rate cuts, but without significant labor market distress, executing these cuts may be challenging [9]. Political Risks and Dollar Demand - Renewed political risks overseas have increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven, with concerns in Japan and France impacting their respective currencies [11]. - The potential rise of a new Japanese Prime Minister, who may implement inflationary policies, has weakened the yen, while ongoing crises in France have pressured the euro [12][13]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the options market, with hedge funds increasing their long positions on the dollar against most G10 currencies, indicating optimism for continued strength [16][17]. - Despite a decrease in the scale of short positions compared to mid-year peaks, there remains significant pain potential for those holding short positions if the dollar continues to appreciate [18][19].