黄金飙升背后的逻辑，美债并不认可？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting narratives between gold and U.S. Treasury bonds in the context of inflation expectations and monetary policy, highlighting a market divided on economic signals and future Federal Reserve actions [1][2][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past 12 months, surpassing $4000, while the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 10% against a basket of major currencies [4][5]. - The concept of "devaluation trade" is gaining traction, where investors bet that governments will create inflation to dilute their growing debt burdens, leading to increased demand for hard assets like gold and stocks [5][6]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Despite the rise in gold prices, the U.S. bond market remains calm, with long-term inflation expectations anchored near the Federal Reserve's 2% target, indicating a lack of concern for runaway inflation among bond investors [7][8]. - The divergence in asset pricing reflects differing market drivers, with stocks buoyed by optimism around AI technology and economic growth, while gold's rise is influenced by central bank actions, low interest rates, and momentum buying [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Signals and Federal Reserve Decisions - The current market debate centers on which economic signal will dominate Federal Reserve decisions: whether to cut rates in response to potential recession or tighten policy to combat inflation [2][12]. - Mixed macroeconomic data presents a challenge, as slowing employment may justify rate cuts, while strong growth and rising inflation could lead to concerns that cuts might exacerbate future inflation [11][12]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Long-term risks suggest that without changes to the U.S. fiscal trajectory, a "debt market reckoning" may occur, where inflation becomes a political choice to address debt issues, although this scenario seems distant [13]. - In the short term, the fate of the market is in the hands of the Federal Reserve, with potential outcomes ranging from abandoning rate cut expectations to tolerating economic overheating, which would validate the "devaluation trade" logic [13].