黄金飙升背后的逻辑，美债并不认可？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting narratives of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting gold as a "vote of no confidence" in future monetary credit, while U.S. bonds represent a "vote of confidence" in policy credibility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past 12 months, surpassing $4000, while the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 10% against a basket of major currencies [6][8]. - The stock market has reached new highs, indicating a growing interest in "devaluation trades," where investors bet on inflation to dilute government debt [6][7]. - The U.S. government's net debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from 96% in 2020 to 98% in 2023, raising concerns about future inflation as a means to address debt issues [8]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The key indicator for long-term inflation expectations, the five-year, five-year forward breakeven inflation rate, remains stable and close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting that bond investors do not foresee runaway inflation [9][10]. - Despite the heated gold market narrative, the bond market has not reacted to the inflation concerns that gold investors are expressing [9][10]. Group 3: Divergent Market Sentiments - The article notes a split in market sentiment, with the stock market driven by optimism around AI technology and strong economic growth, rather than solely inflation hedging [11][12]. - The current macroeconomic data presents contradictions, with signs of a slowing job market suggesting a need for preventive rate cuts, while strong growth and rising inflation raise concerns about the implications of such cuts [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term vs Short-term Risks - Long-term risks indicate that if the U.S. does not alter its fiscal trajectory, a "debt market reckoning" may eventually occur, with inflation becoming a political choice [13]. - In the short term, the fate of the market is in the hands of the Federal Reserve, which may need to abandon rate cut expectations if economic growth continues [13].