【广发宏观团队】关于外部关税扰动：三点历史经验

External Tariff Disturbances - Since 2018, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have shown that China's manufacturing competitiveness is difficult to contain or replace, with China's export share of global exports increasing from 12.7% in 2018 to an expected 14.6% in 2024 [1] - Capital markets typically experience a one-time "provisioning" followed by a "rebound" and "hedging" as external shocks are absorbed, as seen in the market's response to tariff changes in 2025 [2] - The safety margin of the assets themselves is a more critical pricing factor than external disturbances, as evidenced by the performance of the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination" during tariff escalations [2] Long-term Confidence in Chinese Economy and Assets - There is a maintained long-term confidence in the Chinese economy and assets, with the number of high-tech enterprises expected to reach 463,000 in 2024, 1.7 times that of 2020 [3] - If external demand is impacted, the timing of counter-cyclical policy signals often serves as a crucial asset pricing coordinate, especially in the context of expected growth stabilization in Q4 [3] - A broad-based asset allocation is recommended to avoid excessive exposure to single-sided asset risks, particularly given the high valuations in the US stock market [3] Market Dynamics and Asset Rotation - In the second week of October, risk-off sentiment dominated, leading to a decline in asset rotation and increased volatility, with the VIX index rising above 20 [4] - The global stock market experienced a risk-off phase due to the US government shutdown and tariff escalations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [5] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold and silver performing well while oil prices retreated [6] Commodity Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have shown strength, with gold rising by 2.3% and silver by 6.6% in recent weeks, reflecting a significant year-to-date increase [7] - The copper market experienced fluctuations, initially rising but then declining due to tariff impacts, with LME copper futures dropping by 3.0% [7] - Domestic pricing for certain commodities, such as rebar, has shown slight recovery, indicating resilience in specific sectors [8] US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The US government shutdown is expected to continue until mid-October, increasing short-term economic uncertainty, while the upcoming CPI report on October 25 will provide critical inflation data for the Federal Reserve [12][14] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a preference for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year to support employment and balance risks, reflecting a cautious shift towards gradual easing [15][14] Domestic Economic Indicators - The September construction PMI fell to 49, indicating contraction, but new orders and business activity expectations have shown signs of improvement [21] - The establishment of new policy financial tools has led to significant funding allocations for infrastructure and emerging industries, with over 110 billion yuan already disbursed [22] Price Competition Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price disorder in the market, emphasizing the need for fair competition and self-regulation among businesses [23][29]