【宏观】透视特朗普手牌，TACO何时到来？——《大国博弈》系列报告第九十篇（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - Trump has restarted the tariff negotiations, indicating that the U.S. economy is showing signs of bottoming out, which provides leverage for future negotiations with China [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is paving the way for potential rate cuts, which could support economic recovery [4]. - Recent data on consumer spending and manufacturing suggests stabilization in the U.S. economy, enhancing Trump's confidence in imposing additional tariffs [4]. Trade Agreements - Trump has reached preliminary trade agreements with several countries, including Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian nations, allowing him to focus on negotiations with China [4][5]. Agricultural Impact - China is a significant importer of U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans, and any halt in purchases could adversely affect U.S. agricultural states, influencing the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [4][5]. Political Landscape - The current U.S. government shutdown highlights severe partisan conflicts, which may hinder the implementation of structural agricultural subsidies [4]. - The outcome of the midterm elections and ongoing legal challenges regarding tariffs will also impact the pace of tariff negotiations [4]. Market Reactions - The market interprets Trump's tariff strategy as a means to accumulate leverage for future negotiations, despite the potential risks associated with a complete decoupling of U.S.-China trade [5].