【有色】9月中国电解铜产量环比下降4.3% ——铜行业周报（20251006-20251010）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that short-term trade conflicts are suppressing copper prices, but there is an optimistic outlook for copper price increases in the future due to supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10, Trump announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which may exert pressure on copper prices [4]. Supply and Demand - Freeport is reducing copper production for 2025-2026, leading to sustained supply tightness. Demand from downstream sectors like air conditioning is expected to improve in Q4, which may support copper price increases [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [5]. - As of October 10, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 660,000 tons, up 3.5% week-on-week [5]. Production and Processing - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year. Global copper concentrate production was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [6]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [7]. Demand Trends - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rate by 6.91 percentage points to 58.53% as of October 9 [8]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for the months of October to December [8]. Futures Market - As of October 10, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [9].